The CSM 15 election campaign is underway. There are 40 people vying for the 10 slots.
Here’s a realistic look at the possible outcome. I’m making some assumptions here about block voting, but knowing a lot of null coalition leaders and my CSM experience, I think it’s a reasonable take on the situation.
A key thing to remember is that getting #1 pick votes is crucial to being elected. They keep you in the running during the elimination rounds. In CSM 14, eight candidates had more than a 1,000 #1 votes and all but one were elected. Sort Dragon lost by 11 votes due Steve Rounken being supported on a wider number of slates than Sort did, who had more limited external support.
Unless you are part of a strong voting block and high on their ballot, having less than a thousand #1 votes means you probably won’t make it. If you can’t count on having at least 500 #1 votes it’s almost impossible to get elected, unless you are the number choice on a big block voting slates.
The Sure Things – these slots are basically guaranteed based on previous voting dynamics.
Gobbins & second Panfam candidate – The PanFam block is strong and easily put two people on the CSM last year.
Merkelchan & Innominate – With Imperium level coordination, these CSM veterans are locks to return for CSM 15.
Vily – As a Legacy Coalition #1 pick, Vily will easily return.
Brisc Rubal – Supported by The Initiative + his constant campaigning, it’s hard to see Brisc not making a return now that he is tanned and rested.
That’s six of the ten slots that are basically locked in. Only 4 slots open to other candidates. I have very high confidence that those six slots will
The Get Out The Vote Candidates – these people having the needed number of people in their playgroup to win, but the question is, will they vote?
Maria Taylor – The Fraternity candidate. If Fraternity members vote and there is real support on the wider PanFam ballot, this should be an easy seat.
Ikarus Cesaile – The Silent Company. Silent Company is huge with well over 10,000 characters. If they can be motivated to vote, high sec will have a representative. However, it’s unlikely that Ikarus gets a lot of support outside of Silent Company, being new to the EVE politics and community scene.
Second Legacy Candidate – If the Legacy Coalition can coalesce on a second pick after Vily for the ballot, a second Legacy CSM member is a lock.
Wormhole Candidate – The votes are there from the wormhole community. ExookiZ showed that on CSM 14. However this year, Loroseco Kross of Hard Knocks is also running. With ExookiZ currently out a wormhole and associated with Initiative and Hard Knocks relationship with the rest of the wormhole community listed as “It’s Complicated”, it remains to be seen if the wormholers can concentrate their votes to get candidate over the line. The votes are there, but it’s unknown if they will be split or not.
If these candidates can “get out the vote”, they can likely get themselves on CSM 15. That would be the 10 slots all filled.
There are many good candidates out there, several with good non-block support behind them. Can any of them become an election surprise like Olmeca Gold on CSM 14? Stitch Kaneland got 937 votes and made it to the top 13 before being eliminated. This could be his year if he gets a little wider support.
It’s really impossible to say. Ballot slots 3, 4, and 5 start to matter when you get to the last slots and those aren’t usually known until the last minute before voting.
Larger groups and running statistical scenarios based on previous voting numbers and trying to game the negotiation of voting slate slots to ensure outcomes.
Needless to say, if you aren’t one of the top six slots I mention and you aren’t extremely well known in New Eden, getting onto CSM 15 is an extremely difficult task.